ANC DECLINE?
The ANC and the Great Re-Alignment: A Party in Uncharted Waters
For decades, the political narrative in South Africa was written by one author. The African National Congress (ANC) was not just the ruling party; it was the dominant, unshakeable force of the country's post-apartheid era.
Traditionally, the ANC enjoyed massive majorities. But after years of enduring poor service delivery, crippling load shedding, and the devastating impacts of corruption, the everyday South African's patience finally snapped. The watershed moment arrived in the 2024 elections, and the aftershocks are currently reshaping the entire country.
So, how exactly is the ANC tracking as we move deeper into this new political reality?
The Death of the Outright Majority
The most undeniable shift is numerical. The era of the ANC commanding 60% or 70% of the national vote is dead.
This was not a gentle decline; it was a loud, undeniable message from the electorate. The everyday people, exhausted by the collapse of municipalities and rampant unemployment, split their votes. Many migrated to established opposition like the Democratic Alliance (DA), while others flocked to the disruptive new MK party led by former President Jacob Zuma.
The ANC was forced to face a brutal reality: they could no longer govern South Africa alone.
The Government of National Unity (GNU) Experiment
This loss of dominance birthed the current political experiment we are living through: the Government of National Unity (GNU).
From a tracking perspective, the ANC inside the GNU is a very different beast from the ANC of the past:
Toned Down Arrogance: The arrogance of one-party dominance has been forcibly dialed down.
A Marriage of Convenience: This is not the Mandela-era GNU built on reconciliation.
Internal Friction: The ANC is still battling severe internal factionalism.
The Mood on the Ground
If you speak to everyday South Africans, the mood towards the ANC remains highly sceptical. While the formation of the GNU managed to stabilise the markets and perhaps tone down some of the political vitriol, the public is split.
Recent Afrobarometer surveys from early 2026 show that citizens are deeply divided on whether the GNU is actually solving the country's most pressing problems.
The spiky truth is that the GNU is a temporary truce.
The Verdict
The ANC is tracking like a wounded giant that has been forced to adapt to survive. The old strategy of relying purely on historical liberation loyalty has spectacularly failed.
While the GNU has prevented total governmental collapse and brought some much-needed adult supervision into the room, the ANC's long-term trajectory is highly precarious. If they cannot use this period of coalition governance to actually deliver tangible results—like fixing the roads, cleaning up the municipalities, and creating jobs—their slow decline will likely continue. The country has tasted coalition politics, and the ANC will never be the sole author of South Africa's story again.
The ANC and the Great Re-Alignment: A Party in Uncharted Waters
For decades, the political narrative in South Africa was written by one author. The African National Congress (ANC) was not just the ruling party; it was the dominant, unshakeable force of the country's post-apartheid era.
Traditionally, the ANC enjoyed massive majorities. But after years of enduring poor service delivery, crippling load shedding, and the devastating impacts of corruption, the everyday South African's patience finally snapped. The watershed moment arrived in the 2024 elections, and the aftershocks are currently reshaping the entire country.
So, how exactly is the ANC tracking as we move deeper into this new political reality?
The most undeniable shift is numerical. The era of the ANC commanding 60% or 70% of the national vote is dead.
This was not a gentle decline; it was a loud, undeniable message from the electorate. The everyday people, exhausted by the collapse of municipalities and rampant unemployment, split their votes. Many migrated to established opposition like the Democratic Alliance (DA), while others flocked to the disruptive new MK party led by former President Jacob Zuma.
The ANC was forced to face a brutal reality: they could no longer govern South Africa alone.
This loss of dominance birthed the current political experiment we are living through: the Government of National Unity (GNU).
From a tracking perspective, the ANC inside the GNU is a very different beast from the ANC of the past:
Toned Down Arrogance: The arrogance of one-party dominance has been forcibly dialed down.
The ANC now has to negotiate, compromise, and share cabinet portfolios with parties they once dismissed. A Marriage of Convenience: This is not the Mandela-era GNU built on reconciliation.
This is a coalition built on a political stalemate. As commentators have noted, it is a case of "I don't like you, but I need you." The ANC is working with the DA out of absolute necessity, not ideological alignment. Internal Friction: The ANC is still battling severe internal factionalism.
The people who oversaw the party's decline are largely still in the room, and the ideological gap between the ANC's traditional left-wing base and the DA's centrist policies creates constant, underlying friction.
If you speak to everyday South Africans, the mood towards the ANC remains highly sceptical. While the formation of the GNU managed to stabilise the markets and perhaps tone down some of the political vitriol, the public is split.
Recent Afrobarometer surveys from early 2026 show that citizens are deeply divided on whether the GNU is actually solving the country's most pressing problems.
The spiky truth is that the GNU is a temporary truce.
The ANC is tracking like a wounded giant that has been forced to adapt to survive. The old strategy of relying purely on historical liberation loyalty has spectacularly failed.
While the GNU has prevented total governmental collapse and brought some much-needed adult supervision into the room, the ANC's long-term trajectory is highly precarious. If they cannot use this period of coalition governance to actually deliver tangible results—like fixing the roads, cleaning up the municipalities, and creating jobs—their slow decline will likely continue. The country has tasted coalition politics, and the ANC will never be the sole author of South Africa's story again.